Thursday, July 27, 2006

Pranab Mukherjee vs L K Advani

If I thought Vajpayee & Dr. Manmohan Singh were so different and the differences in personalities & capabilities would probably narrow down as we go down the hierarchy of power, I was so very wrong. The stated No. 2s of each government are probably even more different than their bosses - indeed, probably in some ways because of their bosses but mostly different, ideologically and practically from each other because of their own rise to prominence on the national scene.
The No. 2 psyche is interesting to analyze from another angle - L K Advani's biggest mistake was to be born in Vajpayee's era - a leader who was more acceptable and politically more astute but had more or less the same ideology. Advani has been a No. 2 all his political life, right from his Jan Sangh days when Vajpayee was always seen as a future prime minister (even by the then Prime Minister, Pt. Nehru) and Advani his faithful ally. On the other hand, everybody in Congress suffers from the No. 2 psyche all his or her life - almost everybody in the party is subservient to the Nehru-Gandhi family, and being No. 2 comes easy to Congressmen. Pranab Mukherjee has been that loyal Congressman who is finally getting rewarded for his loyalty (quite like Shivraj Patil, but that story another day).
Pranab Mukherjee is the quintessential Congressman who has spent decades in the same party. His friendship with the Left leaders makes him indispensable for negotiating the tricky allies, and his left-of-centre views endear him to the Left leaders who are happy to humor him. His popularity outside the party is minimal at best, and he surprisingly won his first Lok Sabha election in 2004 (after several decades of politics without an election win) but this was unlikely without tacit left backing.
L K Advani, on the other hand is a popular mass leader in his own right - his policies are clearly right-wing as opposed to Pranab's left-wing inclinations. Infact, Advani was the architect of the Ram Janmabhoomi movement (and some say even the Ayodhya demolitions) and was a key factor in bringing BJP into prominence at the national-level. His Rath yatras used to draw immense crowds (though this has dwindled since for his recent yatras were quite poorly attended) and he has a bastion at Ahmedabad that he has held for some time now. Indeed, if were not for his 'rigid' right-wing hindu nationalist views, he might have been a moe acceptable prime ministerial candidate than Vajpayee. As compared to the ailing Vajpayee, Advani (though of almost the same age) was fitter to lead the nation.
Advani was the Home Minister & then the Deputy Prime Minister with the Home portfolio, Pranab is the Defence Minister & widely recognized as no. 2 in the government, indeed has backed up Manmohan Singh when he has been away on international tours etc.
Advani's mass base & ideology (the fact that there is an ideology and that it is not very different from mine except on the Ram Janmabhoomi issue) makes him for me a far better politician. Pranab is the party man, somebody with little standing outside the party (and no mass base even within the party) and is dependent big time on his friends to succeed. His inability to change the party fortunes in West Bengal (Congress is a distant third in the state) and lack of action on terrorism make him a distinct second for me even in this race for the better politican.
Pranab has not been faced with any major challenges / has not been hit by an major controversies so far. On the other hand, Advani's 'softening' and his Jinnah remarks raise a furore in the party that cost him his presidentship. Senior leaders such as Mayawati & Madan Lal Khurana quit, and many RSS & BJP leaders openly criticized him & his leadership. With Vajpayee announcing his retirement from active politics, he is the tallest leader for BJP. Pramod Mahajan's recent death may have actually helped his political fortunes, as the forced hyphenation of Advani-Mahajan as Ram-Lakshman by Vajpayee has come undone. Advani does need to do some serious introspection to ensure he speaks the party line and is not at dissonance with what the party wants him to say.
My verdict? I am keen to give NDA a big lead here, but Pranab's controversy-less performance as Defence Minsiter so far and Advani's own uneven performance as Home Minister force me to call honors even. The verdict - NDA 1.5, UPA 0.5.
Next on the list for my verdict? - The Finance Minister / External Affairs Minister duo of Jawant Singh & Yashwant Sinha (they exchanged positions in between the NDA rule) and P Chidambaram (Natwar Singh has already forfeited his points - I have already written about him and he doesn't merit further discussion).